Fuel shock: what boards must expect and communicate

New Zealand’s fuel shock is bringing underlying vulnerabilities into sharper focus. An economy reliant on imported energy and extended global supply chains is, by definition, exposed to disruption well beyond its control. 

What tends to adjust more quickly than those underlying economic conditions, however, is confidence. These shifts begin to influence behaviour well before the full economic impact is realised.  

That shift is already evident. The ANZ Business Outlook survey for March showed confidence fell 26 points, from 59 to 33. This represents a decline of around 44% in a single month, as fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on the outlook. 

Confidence is both a reflection of conditions and a driver of them. As expectations weaken, businesses defer investment, households reduce discretionary spending, and risk tolerance narrows.  

As ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner observed, “firms are understandably in a mood to reduce their risk-taking – but the unfortunate truth is that one firm’s risk (a purchase, an investment, a hire) is someone else’s opportunity”. 

For boards, this creates a dual challenge. Alongside managing operational and financial impacts, there is a need to ensure confidence is actively maintained as conditions evolve. 

Scrutiny of organisations and governments increases during periods of economic disruption, with stakeholders looking more closely at how responses are handled, how decisions are made and whether leadership appears in control of the situation. The way these signals are communicated can materially influence trust and, in turn, an organisation’s ability to operate effectively. 

International evidence reinforces this point. The OECD has observed that trust becomes more fragile during periods of economic strain, particularly where impacts are not equitable. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 highlights that rebuilding trust is central to resilience, describing trust as the “currency of co-operation” required to navigate complex, interconnected risks. 

For boards, this brings communication and reputation management firmly within the scope of governance. There are practical and strategic actions directors can take to maintain stakeholder trust and confidence, as national confidence declines rapidly. 

Acknowledge early and state your position 

Boards should expect management to address emerging pressures early. This does not require complete certainty, but it does require a clear articulation of how the organisation understands the situation and what it is monitoring. Delaying responses can allow assumptions to take hold externally and internally that may be difficult to correct. 

Clearly articulate stakeholder impacts 

Rising fuel costs are being felt directly by households and businesses. Communication that acknowledges this context is more likely to resonate and be perceived as credible. 

Effective communication distinguishes between what is changing and what remains consistent. Stakeholders need to understand the implications of rising costs or constrained supply, but they also need reassurance around continuity, whether in service delivery, strategic direction or organisational values.  

Trust in this environment is shaped not only by what organisations do, but by how well they demonstrate an understanding of stakeholder impact. Boards should test whether this distinction is being made clear by the organisations they lead. 

Transparency in decision-making 

Many organisations will face trade-offs between cost recovery and customer retention, between short-term performance and longer-term positioning. Explaining how these decisions are being approached, including the principles guiding them, supports understanding and reduces speculation. 

This is particularly relevant for investors and employees, who are increasingly attentive to how decisions are made, as much as outcomes. 

Internal and external communication consistency 

Inconsistent messaging remains a common source of reputational risk. Employees are often the first point of contact for customers and partners. If they lack context or clarity, discrepancies emerge quickly. 

Boards should seek assurance that internal communication is timely, consistent and aligned with external messaging. 

Visible leadership 

In periods of disruption, stakeholders tend to look for direct signals from leadership. The World Economic Forum has emphasised the importance of transparency and visibility in maintaining trust during periods of disruption. 

Boards should consider whether leadership visibility is appropriate to the level of disruption being experienced. 

Reputation is an outcome of response  

Events such as the fuel crisis can accelerate how judgements and opinions of organisations form. Competence, intent and reliability are assessed more quickly, and with less tolerance for inconsistency. 

How organisations respond and how they communicate in times of strain and uncertainty will shape stakeholder perceptions well beyond the immediate period of volatility. 

Fuel markets will stabilise over time. However, business and public confidence, born from fear and lack of control, can also influence outcomes ahead of any tangible shift in underlying economic conditions. 

For directors and executives, the task is to ensure their organisation’s response earns and maintains stakeholder confidence where and when it matters most, offering a sense of stability when stability feels out of reach.